<p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <span style="font-weight:bolder;font-size:16px;">最新一期上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）下跌148.8点，跌幅达7.27%，已跌破2000点大关，降至1896.65点，且已连续四周下跌</span><span style="font-weight:bolder;font-size:16px;">，失守2000点。</span> </p> <p> <div style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;text-align:justify;"> <span style="font-size:16px;">四大远洋航线均下滑，其中欧洲线因持续进入淡季，货量减少，跌幅尤为显著，达到15.93％。美东和美西线的跌幅也超过了4％。</span> </div> <div style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;text-align:justify;"> <img src="https://yixiaoer-image-oss.yixiaoer.cn/20250212/8e42a84d-dd66-4741-b077-5c05e1881d36.jpg" /> </div> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <span><br /> </span> </div> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <br /> </div> <span style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;font-weight:bolder;"> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <span style="font-size:16px;font-weight:bolder;">0</span><span style="font-size:16px;font-weight:bolder;">1</span><span style="font-size:16px;font-weight:bolder;">美线稳定欧线下跌</span> </div> </span> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <br /> </div> <span> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <span><span style="font-size:16px;">有业内人士分析认为，美线方面，由于船公司年前囤货以及空班缩舱的行为，使得美线运价相对较为稳定。二月第一周上海至洛杉矶和上海至纽约航线的运价均比一月最后一周</span></span><span style="font-size:16px !important;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-weight:bolder;">下跌1%。</span> </div> </span><span> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <span><span style="font-size:16px;">据英国物流媒体收到的主动报价显示，二月第二周从上海出发到洛杉矶和奥克兰的运价仅为2300美元/FEU，而从</span></span><span style="font-size:16px !important;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-weight:bolder;">上海和宁波到美国东部的运价也仅为3600美元/FEU。</span> </div> </span><span> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <span style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-size:16px;">然而，欧线由于船舶较大且年后货量持续偏少，预计下半月欧洲线的价格将继续下跌。</span> </div> </span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <img src="https://yixiaoer-image-oss.yixiaoer.cn/20250212/7e67c1de-ff0c-4ab4-8dd3-833c4edcd75f.jpg" /> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <span style="font-size:16px;">业内人士指出，春节后货量较少，因此运价走跌。目前春节假期刚刚结束，整体出货状况还不明朗。美国</span><span style="font-weight:bolder;font-size:16px;">确定对中国加征10%关税，</span><span style="font-size:16px;">预计这将会持续影响到未来市场，但影响有多大还要观察，下周中国地区的出货量非常关键。</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <span><br /> </span> </div> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <br /> </div> <span style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;font-weight:bolder;"> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <span style="font-size:16px;font-weight:bolder;">0</span><span style="font-size:16px;font-weight:bolder;">2</span><span style="font-size:16px;font-weight:bolder;">集运公司阻止运价下滑</span> </div> </span> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <br /> </div> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <span style="font-size:16px;">不过，分析指出，集运公司或通过控制运力阻止运价下滑。</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <span style="font-size:16px;">Xeneta首席分析师Peter Sand最近警告称，</span><span style="font-weight:bolder;font-size:16px;">未来取消航次的数量可能会显著增加。</span><span style="font-size:16px;">他指出，集运公司不会坐视运价下跌，预计未来几周将会有更多运力削减措施。此外，联盟新航线的推出也将间接占用运力。</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <img src="https://yixiaoer-image-oss.yixiaoer.cn/20250212/c4db2e55-be4c-422e-ae16-0fabec782042.jpg" /> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <span style="font-size:16px;">另一方面，业界认为，目前还没有集运公司作出重返红海航线的决策，因此目前整体船舶市场的供给还是偏紧，租船市场的租金依旧居高不下，</span><span style="font-weight:bolder;font-size:16px;">市场前景不需太过悲观。</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <span><br /> </span> </div> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <br /> </div> <span style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;font-weight:bolder;"> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <span style="font-size:16px;font-weight:bolder;">0</span><span style="font-size:16px;font-weight:bolder;">3</span><span style="font-size:16px;font-weight:bolder;">旺季会回涨</span> </div> </span> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <br /> </div> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <br /> </div> <span> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <span><span style="font-size:16px;">据消息人士解释称：“春节后至2月底这段时间，亚洲地区的现货价格将极具吸引力，</span></span><span style="font-size:16px !important;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-weight:bolder;">这完全是由市场的供求关系所决定的。”</span> </div> </span><span> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <span style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-size:16px;">但同时也指出，由于托运人持续优先考虑确保大量货物的运力，因此长期运费的谈判仍然维持在“相当高的水平”。</span> </div> </span><span> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <img src="https://yixiaoer-image-oss.yixiaoer.cn/20250212/8de53a9f-0fdf-4368-8ac3-c1d97ddc5595.jpg" /> </div> </span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <span style="font-weight:bolder;font-size:16px;">近洋线方面，</span><span style="font-size:16px;">远东到日本关西及关东持平，为305及308美元；远东到东南亚每TEU为454美元，下跌54美元，跌幅10.63％；远东到韩国下跌1美元，为138美元，跌幅0.72％。</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <span><br /> </span> </div> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <br /> </div> <span style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;font-weight:bolder;"> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <span style="font-weight:bolder;font-size:16px;">SCFI运价</span> </div> </span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <span style="font-size:16px;">上海到欧洲运价1805美元/TEU，下跌342美元，周跌15.92%；</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <span style="font-size:16px;">上海到地中海运价3036美元/TEU，下跌171美元，周跌5.33%；</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <span style="font-size:16px;">上海到美西运价3932美元/FEU，下跌184美元，周跌4.47%；</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <span style="font-size:16px;">上海到美东运价5490美元/FEU，下跌286美元，周跌4.95%；</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <span style="font-size:16px;">波斯湾航线每箱运价1191美元，下跌19美元，周跌1.6%；</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <span style="font-size:16px;">南美航线(桑托斯)每箱运价3435美元，下跌428美元，周跌11.1%；</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <span style="font-size:16px;">东南亚航线(新加坡)每箱运价454美元，下跌54美元，周跌10.62%。</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <br /> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65);font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:16px !important;"> <span style="font-size:16px;">虽然运价近期下跌，但考虑到时值淡季，待到业务旺季到来时，根据过往运价走势来看</span><span style="font-weight:bolder;font-size:16px;">，会迎来一波回涨。</span><span style="font-size:16px;">可持续观望，提前做好发货准备。</span> </p>